The U.S. is not out of the inflation rut

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On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Jamie Dimon, the "big brother of Wall Street" and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, said that although his confidence in the decline of US inflation from high levels has increased recently, he still does not rule out the possibility of the United States falling into stagflation.

“I think the worst possible outcome is stagflation — recession, rising inflation,” Dimon said at the Council of Institutional Investors’ fall meeting in Brooklyn, New York. “And by the way, I wouldn’t rule that out completely.”

The risk of a U.S. recession has resurfaced . Jamie Dimon’s comments come as market investors turn their attention to signs of slowing U.S. economic growth.

Recent data showed that although U.S. price pressures have eased recently, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, reports on employment and manufacturing showed some signs of slowing, which has revived market concerns about recession risks.

Judging from the data, US inflation seems to have cooled down significantly recently: since March this year, the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI has declined for five consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in July has dropped below 3, reaching 2.9%. However, US non-farm employment data has been significantly lower than expected in the past two months, and the unemployment rate has also risen to more than 4%.

Against this backdrop, the US CPI data to be released tonight and the PPI data to be released tomorrow night will attract much attention.

The inflation crisis has not been resolved . Even though the CPI growth rate has been declining for several months, Dimon is still worried that a series of upcoming inflationary factors, such as the increase in the US fiscal deficit and increased infrastructure spending, will continue to add pressure to the US economy, which is still affected by high interest rates. Dimon said: "These are all inflationary (factors), basically in the short term, for the next few years (are the same)... So it's hard to look at the current situation and say, 'Well, we're out of trouble.' I don't think so."

Dimon has previously warned of the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In August, he said the chances of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy were only about 35% to 40%, suggesting a recession was a more likely outcome.

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