The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions have recently raised their expectations for China's economic growth. International capital such as sovereign funds in the Middle East continue to "increase their holdings" in China. In the first half of this year, China established nearly 27,000 new foreign-funded enterprises. Many countries and companies are looking forward to riding on China's development express. At the same time, the New York Times recently published an article, falsely claiming that the economic difficulties of some countries are due to "over-reliance" on China and being dragged down by China's economic slowdown. The US media is turning black and white, intending to shift the responsibility of the United States for endangering the world economy at a time when the negative spillover effects of US economic policies are constantly emerging.
As the world's largest economy and the main issuer of international currency, the United States' fiscal situation and policy choices have important spillover effects on the world economy, and it should adopt responsible fiscal and monetary policies. However, the United States has long abused its dollar hegemony and arbitrarily adjusted its macroeconomic policies, exacerbating debt problems, causing financial market turmoil, and severely damaging the economies of some emerging markets and developing countries, which has seriously hindered the global economic recovery.
In response to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates. Starting from March 2020, it continuously lowered the interest rate range to near zero, and began to implement the so-called "unlimited" quantitative easing, carrying out an unprecedented "flooding" of money, which quickly pushed up U.S. inflation. In order to ease inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve turned around and started aggressive interest rate hikes, raising the interest rate range to 5.25% to 5.5% in a short period of time. The "dollar tide" formed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes harvests global wealth and transfers crises. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates on a large scale, the United States exports capital and plunders other countries by overissuing dollars to import goods and investing in other countries; when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates aggressively, it leads to a rapid tightening of global liquidity and a sharp depreciation of multiple currencies. Countries that borrow in U.S. dollars have a sudden increase in debt repayment pressure, and many developing countries have fallen into the dilemma of "exchange rate fluctuations-capital outflows-increased financing costs-debt repayment difficulties".
The "willful" US internal problems continue to accumulate, and have become a "time bomb" that threatens the stability of the global economy and finance. On the 5th of last month, stock markets in many countries around the world suffered a "Black Monday". The underlying reason is that investors are worried about the spread of panic about the "hard landing" of the US economy. Although the current inflation problem in the United States has eased, a series of economic data such as employment and manufacturing are not as expected. The market's concerns about US inflation have turned into concerns about the economy falling into recession, and global investor confidence has been shaken by the uncertainty of the US economy. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gulancha wrote that the United States' "current fiscal policy stance is inconsistent with long-term fiscal sustainability" and will put the global economy at risk of fiscal and financial stability in the long run. The US fiscal policy has long been "eating up the food of the next year in the current year", and the debt scale has continued to set new records. At the end of July, the US federal government debt exceeded 35 trillion US dollars, a surge of 1 trillion US dollars in more than half a year, which continues to cause global concerns. In 1971, the United States announced the decoupling of the dollar from gold, and printing money and borrowing became the policy preference of the United States to get rid of economic difficulties and even create "economic prosperity". As the Fed tightens and loosens its policies, the liquidity of the US dollar ebbs and flows, and the yield of US bonds, which is the anchor of global asset pricing, fluctuates, which has a chain effect on the stability of financial markets and even the real economy in peripheral regions. The IMF once issued a report pointing out that the high fiscal deficit and debt of the United States are creating increasingly serious risks for the domestic and global economies, and the US government urgently needs to solve the long-term fiscal deficit problem.
At the same time, the United States has been vigorously promoting protectionism, engaging in "decoupling and breaking chains", and even weaponizing economic and trade issues, seriously undermining the global trade order and normal economic and trade exchanges. The United States has frequently used sanctions, abused trade protectionism, and constantly provoked geopolitical conflicts, disrupting the global supply chain industry chain oriented towards optimal resource allocation, causing huge impact and damage to the world economy.
In today's world, countries around the world are working together to promote a more fair and reasonable global economic order, from rejecting the US's coercion to diversifying investment allocations and striving for greater voice in global economic governance. The US only cares about its own interests and continues to export negative policy spillover effects, which seriously endangers global economic and financial stability and has become the source of world economic chaos. The US cannot shirk this responsibility.
