The August non-farm employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 6th local time showed that although the U.S. unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.2% from 4.3% last month, the number of new non-farm jobs was only 142,000, significantly lower than As expected, the previous value was also revised significantly downward.

A large number of analysts believe that due to factors such as a weak job market and increasing household debt, it has become a high probability that U.S. economic growth will slow down further. The unemployment rate is a more intuitive indicator of economic recession. When the unemployment rate continues to rise for a certain period of time and exceeds a certain limit, the economy can be deemed to have entered a recession. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. unemployment rate has been rising for several consecutive months, and the number of new non-agricultural jobs has been significantly downwardly revised many times, triggering deep doubts in the market about whether the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing.

Diane Swank, chief economist of KPMG's U.S. branch, believes that the current weakness in the U.S. labor market is getting closer and closer to the performance during the recession.

Swank: "Job growth in August was driven by hiring in the health care and social assistance industries, with government employment and leisure and hospitality employment also increasing. But that's the problem. As of the end of July, the number of job openings in these three industries had fallen sharply, and they are interest rate-insensitive industries, so it's clear what their future employment momentum will be. This also means that the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is getting smaller and smaller."

Kevin Mahan, chief investment officer of Hennion & Walsh Asset Management in the United States, specifically mentioned that the rising U.S. household debt amid a weak job market will have a lasting negative impact on personal consumption, thereby dragging down economic growth.

MAHAN: "Given that personal consumption expenditures account for about 70% of the U.S. economy, if consumers start to rein in spending because they're out of work and use their income to pay down personal debt, the economy is only going to slow further."

In addition to the lower-than-expected number of new non-farm jobs, the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index has fallen below the "boom-bust line" for five consecutive months.

In addition, according to the Federal Reserve's national economic situation survey report released recently, economic activity in only three of the 12 regions increased slightly, while the number of regions where economic activity remained flat or declined increased from five in the last report to nine.

These data confirm the possibility that US economic growth will slow down further or even enter a recession.

David Rosenberg, an economist at Rosenberg Research, listed 20 indicators of a U.S. recession in a report at the end of last month. According to his analysis, nine of them have been triggered, which means that "the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into recession is rising."

In fact, the number of recession signals for the U.S. economy has been increasing over the past two years, with only 10% being triggered in 2022, and rising to around 25% in 2023 and the first half of this year. Since then, the rate of increase has accelerated, reaching 45% now.

Normally, the Fed's monetary policy goals can be simplified into a "dual mission," namely, "maintaining price stability" and "achieving full employment" to avoid a recession in the U.S. economy. However, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has been warning of the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy since 2022. In an interview with U.S. media last month, he said that his views on the possibility of a recession "are the same as before."

Dimon: "There is a lot of uncertainty in the U.S. economy right now. Geopolitics, housing costs, government deficits, presidential elections and other factors can cause market panic. Based on the U.S. government's future large-scale spending on green economy and military expansion, I am a little skeptical about whether the Fed can reduce the inflation rate to its annual target of 2%."

Analysts generally believe that the current US economy faces three problems that need to be solved: first, some people are spending more than they earn; second, the ratio of housing prices to income is too high, and transaction volume has dropped sharply; third, the stock market is overvalued. In addition, the United States also has a serious debt problem, and the debt level is unsustainable.

Some experts also pointed out that the current signs of weakness in the US economy are very similar to those before the recession in 2007, including a large number of indicators showing that the economy is facing the risk of decline: falling housing sales, pressure on household budgets, and a large amount of hot money flowing in the market...

The latest Financial Stability Report released by the Federal Reserve shows that 72% of respondents believe that the United States is currently facing risks in its response to inflation and adjustments to monetary tightening policies; 56% of respondents believe that U.S. commercial and residential real estate are facing risks; 44% of respondents believe that the U.S. banking industry is facing risks; and 40% of respondents believe that the United States continues to be under pressure and faces huge risks in terms of fiscal and debt sustainability.

Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens College, University of Cambridge, chief economic adviser to Allianz Group, and renowned American economist, believes that the U.S. economy is facing more than just a recession.

He has repeatedly warned that the Fed will not be able to reduce the US inflation rate to the target of 2% without hitting the economy. The underlying reason why the US economy cannot escape the risk of recession is that the current US economic development model faces fundamental risks and challenges.

El-Erian: "The current economic development model of the United States is undergoing a qualitative change. Instead of pursuing the previous benign economic policies characterized by deregulation and fiscal prudence, we have become a government that arbitrarily intervenes in industrial policies and implements irresponsible fiscal policies. At the same time, at the international level, we no longer talk about globalization, but choose to divide and decouple."