Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America (hereinafter referred to as "Bank of America"), the second largest bank in the United States, said in an interview on the 11th local time that the U.S. economic recession that people are very worried about does not exist and the bank "does not Predicting a Recession Again.” The latest weekly chief economist report released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) also holds a similar view, that is, the United States is currently in an "economic slowdown, but not a recession." The EIU stated in this report that the recent fluctuations in global markets are partly related to concerns about a U.S. economic recession. It seems that this concern has been excessive, which also masks the fact that the U.S. economy is experiencing a significant slowdown. The current situation of the U.S. economy is that "inflation seems to be steadily declining, and other economic indicators are showing a weakening direction." That is, the number of new non-agricultural jobs is expected to be less than expected, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly to 4.3%. Although It is low but has "small signs" of slowly rising. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), as the so-called leading index of economic development, is also in a not very optimistic situation. "This means that the U.S. economy has begun to weaken under a long period of repressive high interest rates."

The Bank of America team expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, the first in September and then again in December, and four more times in 2025. Moynihan said in the interview that he sees that consumer spending is already weak. According to the bank's data, consumption growth in July and August this year was about 3%, half of that in 2023. "Consumers have money in their accounts, but it's running out a little bit." He explained: "They have jobs, they're making money, but they've really slowed down." Moynihan said the current scenario is that "we have won the battle against inflation, inflation has fallen, but it's not at the level people want now, and we have to be careful not to cause a recession." He also added that the Fed does not think this will happen.

In Moyhany's view, the U.S. economy will grow by 2%, then grow by 1.5% in the next six quarters, and continue to bump along at this rate. Although the U.S. economy continues to grow despite persistent inflation and high interest rates, according to a new survey of 2,000 adults by Affirm, 59% of Americans wrongly believe that the U.S. is already in a recession.

The survey found that most respondents, citing rising costs and insufficient income, believed that the U.S. recession began about 15 months ago, in March 2023, and could last until July 2025. In fact, this is a problem that economists have been struggling to solve, that is, the increasing disconnect between the actual macroeconomic situation and people's feelings about their own financial situation. "If you look at the prices of goods in the United States separately, especially daily necessities, they have indeed risen a lot. Since the epidemic, the price may have doubled, but at this time, the U.S. wage has risen at the same time." Hu Jie told the reporter of China Business Network that the daily lives of most American consumers have not been really affected by inflation, but the U.S. economy has entered a state of relatively high inflation, and it is currently necessary to adjust such an inflation parameter to normal.