Expectations of a US recession stir up global crude oil prices

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The global economic turmoil has intensified, and the fear of a US recession has caused oil prices to fall further. According to the UpstreamOnline website on the 6th, although the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has made the energy market more sensitive, oil prices fell further on Monday due to concerns about a US recession, approaching an 8-month low. On the 6th, the shares of two major international oil giants, BP, fell 3.3%, and Shell fell more than 4%. As the continued economic turmoil affects the wider market, international oil prices have fallen sharply recently, falling more than 3% last Friday. However, according to the Russian newspaper "Viewpoint" on the 7th, international oil prices rose slightly on the 7th. Brent crude oil futures for October rose 0.24% to $76.65 per barrel, and WTI crude oil futures for September rose 0.22% to $73.38. Wandan Harry, founder of Vanda Insights, a global oil market macro analysis agency, said that market sentiment has stabilized and oil prices have stopped falling, but it seems to be a "conditional floor" at present.

      According to Kazakhstan's inbusiness website on the 6th, international oil prices have fallen by 5.5% since the beginning of this month, and the cumulative decline in the past four weeks is nearly 11%. Geopolitical risks that traditionally put pressure on the market have not directly driven up oil prices recently. Currently, oil prices are most affected by the US economy. Investors' concerns about the potential recession in the US economy immediately affected global financial markets.

      According to a report by Russian news agency TASS on the 6th, Russian experts expect that international oil prices will soon return to $80 per barrel. Vasily Tanurkov, CEO of Russian credit rating agency ACRA, attributed the decline in oil prices mainly to the general "risk aversion" behavior that began after the collapse of the US stock market last week. The actions of the oil-producing organization OPEC+ to adjust production will return Brent crude oil prices to $80 per barrel this year. Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio management manager at Alpha Capital, believes that future international oil prices will be affected by the Fed's response and possible interest rate cuts, China's economic recovery, and OPEC+'s response. Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, an expert at the Russian "BCS Global Investment" company, said that considering the policies of OPEC+ and tensions in the Middle East, world oil prices may soon recover from the current decline. She believes that China and other Asian countries may increase their oil consumption by more than 1 million barrels per day this year, and oil prices may stabilize between $75 and $80 per barrel in the coming months.

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