Recently , the United States and Japan signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, pledging to provide long-term support to Ukraine.

       "Today is a truly historic day," Zelensky said that day, but at the same time, he also questioned the United States and its allies: "How long can this unity last?"

       Many foreign media pointed out that the prospects of the agreement are still unclear. What do these two bilateral agreements mean? What are the three parties of the United States, Japan and Ukraine thinking? Can the promises in the agreement be fulfilled in the end?

       “Ukraine officially becomes a member of the Western camp”

       During the G7 summit held in Italy on the 13th local time, US President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signed bilateral security agreements with Ukrainian President Zelensky. The United States and Japan are also the last G7 countries to sign security agreements with Ukraine.

What do these two agreements mean?

       First, the bilateral security agreement is playing a role as an alternative security guarantee or a military alliance, especially between the United States and Ukraine. Although Ukraine has not joined NATO, the agreement means that Ukraine has "officially become a member of the Western camp."

Second, through the bilateral security agreement, the West and Ukraine have tied their interests together to some extent. Ukraine has received long-term and stable external military assistance, and the possibility of a major military collapse is becoming increasingly small.

        After signing a bilateral agreement with Ukraine, the United States and Japan reiterated their support for Ukraine. However, what are the thoughts of the United States, Japan, and Ukraine behind all this?

The US actually wants to use the situation between Russia and Ukraine to enhance its international status and influence, reorganize the Western camp, and "revive" NATO. Secondly, the US wants to use Ukraine to contain Russia. Finally, the US also hopes to use this as an example to create a chain reaction and try to win over more small countries to serve its own global strategy.

For Japan, signing the Japan-Ukraine security agreement will enhance Japan's influence in global politics and also be an explanation to Western allies such as the United States. In addition, Ukraine's reconstruction work in the future will become a "big cake", and the agreement may help Japan gain economic benefits from it.

As for Ukraine, Zhang Hong believes that Ukraine can be bound to the West in the long term in terms of interests and obtain stable military assistance. In addition, the signing of the bilateral agreement is an encouragement to its society, people's hearts and military morale.

        "The agreement is just a diplomatic commitment"

        Under the agreement, if Ukraine is subjected to an armed attack or threat, senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet within 24 hours to discuss response measures and determine what additional defense needs Ukraine requires.

With the situation between Russia and Ukraine continuing to be tense, can the United States fulfill this commitment? The United States and the West are already doing so, and the agreement only institutionalizes it and fixes it in the form of a joint agreement.

        In fact, before the agreement was signed, CNN pointed out that the US-Ukraine bilateral security agreement was expected to be an "executive agreement" rather than a formal treaty.

US media also pointed out that the agreement did not make specific financial commitments to support Ukraine's national defense, nor did it require the United States to send troops to protect Ukraine. CNN believes that the prospects of this security agreement remain unclear.

       The agreement is only a diplomatic commitment and is not binding. It is a reaffirmation of the military cooperation between the United States and Ukraine. "The content of the agreement does not go beyond the scope of past cooperation between the two sides."

In addition, "the security resources mentioned in the agreement are a vague concept, and the magnitude and quantity of security resources are not specifically stipulated. However, this actually indicates that even if the agreement is signed, the West still has a great deal of discretion in how to implement it."

        Will aid to Ukraine continue to flow?

In 2024, leaders of four G7 countries will face key domestic elections. The US "Politico News Network" analyzed that the leaders participating in this G7 summit may be the "weakest" group of leaders in many years, and most of them are distracted by domestic elections and various "crises".

       2024 is the year of the US presidential election. The British Parliament and the French National Assembly will also hold elections. At the same time, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will also elect a president.

AFP reported that Zelensky expressed doubts about the lasting support of the United States and other allies. Zelensky said the question is "how long will the unity last", such as how the unity between the United States and European leaders will be affected by the results of elections in many countries this year.

Taking the U.S.-Ukraine bilateral agreement as an example, CNN bluntly stated that the agreement "is not necessarily binding on any future president" and may be canceled by a future U.S. government. Reuters also pointed out that the future of the agreement remains unclear.

　　European media pointed out that former President Trump, who has secured the nomination for the Republican presidential candidate, has not made it clear whether he will continue to support Ukraine if he wins the upcoming election. Trump, who advocates "America First," has always been skeptical about providing additional military aid to Ukraine and once criticized "the continuous flow of American wealth to Ukraine."

Nevertheless, will the election trends in these countries affect their fundamental position on aiding Ukraine?

Aiding Ukraine is politically correct in Western society. Therefore, even if there are changes in the domestic politics of some countries in the future, it is unlikely that the West will completely abandon Ukraine.

   However, in some Western countries, supporting Ukraine is a mainstream practice, but there are still great differences among Western political parties in how they support Ukraine.

   Moreover, the Ukrainian crisis has made Europe feel that it is in cahoots with the United States. As time goes by, Europe may become more determined than the United States on the issue of aid to Ukraine.